After two years of severe turbulence, the credit market has regained a degree of stability. Here is what that means concretely if you have a project in mind.
Rates stabilised at around 3.4 to 3.5%
In summer 2026, average rates stand at around 3.4% over 20 years and 3.5% over 25 years, after the spring peak. The trend is towards stabilisation rather than a fall: the phase of rapid decline seen in late 2024 and early 2025 is well and truly over.
Why rates are no longer falling
Banks index their rate scales in part on the 10-year OAT (French government bond), the rate at which the French State borrows. That rate stayed high in the first half of 2026, even brushing 4% in the spring, under the effect of pressure on the public debt and the return of inflation. As long as this context persists, a return to the low rates of before 2022 remains unlikely.
What really changes: the gap between banks
The striking feature is not the average rate, but its dispersion. On the same application, on the same date, the gap between two banks can exceed €15,000 in total cost. Credit has become a comparison market: it is putting lenders in competition that makes the difference, far more than the “right moment”.
Should you wait to buy?
Waiting for a hypothetical fall also exposes you to a tightening of conditions or to a rise in prices. A strong application — deposit, stable income, well-kept accounts — obtains negotiable terms below the market average today. The real adjustment variable remains the quality of the application and the number of banks genuinely put in competition.
Indicative figures as at the publication date (July 2026), liable to change from one month to the next.
- Around 3.4% over 20 years and 3.5% over 25 years in summer 2026: stabilisation.
- A high 10-year OAT prevents any marked fall.
- Up to €15,000 of difference between banks on the same application.
- Comparing matters more than waiting.